Lord Martin Rees: We Are Living Through A Political And Scientific Transformation
Lord Martin Rees is an astrophysicist and the former master of Trinity College, Cambridge. He sat down with The WorldPost for a wide-ranging interview, which has been edited for clarity and brevity .
Alexander Grlach : Out of all great transformations we are going through, from climate change to artificial intelligence to gene editing, what are the most consequential we are about to witness?
Martin Rees : It depends on what time scale we are thinking about. In the next 10 or 20 years, I would say its the rapid development in biotechnology. We are already seeing that its becoming easier to modify the genome, and we heard about experimentations on the influenza virus to make it more virulent and transmissible. These techniques are developing very fast and have huge potential benefits but unfortunately also downsides.
They are easily accessible and managed. Its the kind of equipment thats available at many university labs and many companies. And so the risk of mistake or terror in these areas is quite substantial, while regulation is very hard. Its not like governing nuclear activity, which requires huge special intent facilities. Biohacking is almost a student-competitive sport.
I am somewhat pessimistic, because even if we do have regulations and protocols for safety, how would we enforce them globally? Plainly we should try and minimize the risk of misuse by fault or by design of these technologies and also be concerned about the ethical dilemma they pose. So my despair stems from impressions that what can be done, will be done somewhere by someone whatever the regulations say.
Rees : I dont think governments would use biotech in dangerous routes. They havent used biological weapons much, and the reason for that is that the effects are unpredictable.
‘Over the next 10 or 20 years, the greatest transformation we are likely to live through is the rapid development in biotechnology.’ Lord Martin Rees
Grlach : That brings recent Hollywood blockbusters like Infernoto mind, where one lunatic tries to sterilize half of humankind through a virus.
Rees : Several movies have been made about global bio-disasters. Nevertheless, I think it is a realistic scenario, and I think it could lead to huge casualties. Tragedies such as the one from Inferno, as well as other natural pandemics, could spread globally. The consequences of such a catastrophe could be really serious for society. We have had natural pandemics in historic moment the black death, for example. The reason that governments set pandemics natural or artificially produced high on their risk register is the danger of societal breakdown.That is what worries me most about the possible impact of pandemics. This is a natural menace, of course. The threat is aggregated by the growing possibility that individuals or small groups could fabricate a more lethal virus artificially.
Grlach : So when speaking of persons under the age of transformation, aspects of security seem paramount to you. Why is that?
Rees : We are moving into an age when small groups can have a huge and even global impact. In fact, I highlighted this theme in my volume Our Final Century , which I wrote 13 years ago. These new technologies of bio and cyber as we know can cause massive disruption. We have had traditional dissenters and terrorists, but there were certain limits to how much devastation they could cause. And that restriction has risen tremendously with these new bio and cyber-technologies. I think this is a new threat, and it is going to increase the tension between liberty, security and privacy.
Grlach : Lets look at another huge topic: artificial intelligence. Is this a field where more uplifting guess occur to you?
Rees : If we stay within our time frame of 10-20 years, I guess the prime concerns about A.I. are going to be in the realm of biological issues. And everyone agrees that we should try and govern these. My concern is that it will be hard to stimulate effective regulations. Outside biological consequences, in the long term, of course we need to worry about A.I. and machines learning too much.
In the short term, we have the issue of the interruption of the labor market due to robotics taking over not just factory run but also many skilled occupations. I entail routine legal run, medical diagnostics and possibly surgery. Indeed, some of the hardest jobs to mechanize are undertakings like horticulture and plumbing.
We will have to accept a big redistribution in the way the labor market is deployed. And in order to ensure we dont develop even more inequality, there has got to be a massive redistribution. The money earned by robots cant merely going to see a small elite Silicon Valley people, for example. In my views, it should rather be used for the funding of dignified, secure tasks. Preferably in the public sector young and old, teaching assistants, gardeners in public parks, custodians and things like that. There is limitless demand for jobs of that kind.
‘Some of the hardest chores to mechanize are tasks like gardening and plumbing.’ Lord Martin Rees
Grlach: But robots also potentially could take on the work of a nurse, for that matter.
Rees : True, they could do some routine nurse. But I think people favor real human beings, just as weve already seen that the wealthiest people want personal servants rather than automation. I think everyone would like that if they could afford it, and everyone in old age preferred to cared for by a real person.
Grlach : In your opinion, what mental capacities will robots have in the near future?
Rees : I think it will be a long time before they will have the all-round ability of humans. Maybe that will never happen. We dont know. But what is called generalized machine learning, having been stimulated possible by the ever-increasing number-crunching power of computers, is a genuine big breakthrough. These structures of machine learning are a big leap, and they open up the possibility that machines can really learn a great deal about the world. It does raise dangers though, which people may worry about. If these computers were to get out of their box the working day, they might pose a significant threat.
Grlach : In your opinion, what triggers new innovation and notions? Will A.I. and machines foster these processes?
Rees : Moments of insights are quite rare, sadly. But they do happen, as documented occurrences suggest( laughs ). There is a great telling: Luck favors the prepared intellect. You have got to ruminate a lot before you are in a country to have one of these important insights. If you ask when the big advances in scientific understanding happen, they are often triggered by some new observation that in turn was enabled by some new technological advancement. Sometimes that happens just by a combination of people intersecting disciplines and bringing new ideas together; sometimes just through luck; sometimes through a special motivation that caused people to focus on some problem; sometimes by people focusing on a new problem that was deemed too difficult previously and therefore didnt attract attention.
‘Fortune favors the prepared mind.’
Grlach : Would you say a collective can have an idea or that only people have ideas?
Rees : Many notions may have depended on the collective to even emerge. In soccer, person or persons may score the key goal. That doesnt entail the other 10 people on the team are irrelevant. I think a lot of science is very much like that: the strength of a team is crucial to enable one person to rating the goal.
Grlach : Do natural sciences and humanities have the capability to tackle the challenges resulting from these transformations?
Rees : The kinds of issues we are addressing in Cambridge involve social sciences as well as natural sciences. As I said before, because of the societal effect, the consequences of a pandemic now could be worse than they were in the past, despite our economically more advanced medication. Also, if we are thinking of ecological problems like food shortages, the issue of food distribution is an economic topic, as well as a question of what people are ready to eat. All these things involve fully understanding people social postures. Are we going to be satisfied feeing insects for protein?
Grlach : With the rising quantity of aggregated data, it becomes increasingly difficult for the humanities to keep up with natural sciences. How can we sync the languages of different academic fields in this era of big data?
Rees : Great topic! There are impediments caused by disciplinary boundaries, and we have to encourage people to bridge these. I am gratified that we have some young people who are of this kind: philosophers who are into computer science or biologists who are interested in system analysis. All these things are very important. I think here in Cambridge, we are quite well-advantaged because we traditionally have the college system whereby we have small academic groupings of each college. Each of these colleges is a microcosm, so all disciplines intersect somewhat. It is therefore particularly propitious as a place for the development of cross-disciplinary work.
How can we sync the languages of different academic fields in this era of big data?
Grlach : The boons of modern invention seem to be ignored by many policymakers; we ensure a retreat from globalization and a retired from digitalization. Is it a unplug between science and the rest of society?
Rees : The misapplication of science is a problem, of course. As well as the fact that sciences benefits are irregularly distributed. There are some people that dont benefit, such as traditional factory workers.If you look at the welfare of the average blue-collar worker and their income in real terms in the U.S. and in Europe it has not risen in the last 20 years; in many respects, their welfare has declined. Their chores are less secure, and there is more unemployment. But there is one facet in which they are better off: information technologies. IT spreads far quicker than expected and led to advantages for employees in Europe, the U.S. and Africa.
Grlach : But surely globalization stimulated many poor people less poor and a few rich people even richer.
Rees : Sure, I guess this statement can be made after 25 years of globalization. But it should also be addressed that we are today witness a significant backlash in many places in terms of Brexit or the presidential election in the U.S.
Grlach : How drastically do you think these developments will affect science, the attitude toward it and its funding?
Rees : Many of the people who use modern information technology, such as cellphones, arent aware of the immense technological accomplishments. Back in the day, growths could be traced back to scientific inventions decades ago, which were mainly funded by either the military or the public. They may not be aware of it, but they appreciate it. So its unfair to say people are anti-science. They are worried about science because indeed there is a risk that some of these technologies will run ahead faster than we can control and cope with them. So there is a reasonable ground for some people to be concerned for example, about biotech and A.I.
But we also have to bear in mind that for technology to be developed, its necessary but not sufficient for a certain amount of science “il know”. We can take areas of technology in which we could have forged ahead faster but havent because there was no demand. Take one example: it took only 12 years from the first Sputnik to Neil Armstrongs small step on the moon a huge development in 12 years. The motivation for the Apollo program was a political one and has led to huge expenses. Or take commercial flying today, we fly in the same way we did 50 years ago, even though in principle we could all fly in supersonics.
These are two examples where the technology exists but there hasnt been a motive neither political nor economic to advance these technologies as fast as possible. In the case of IT, there was the obvious demand, which explosion globally in an amazing way.
‘There are areas of technology in which we could have forged ahead faster but havent because there was no demand.’ Lord Martin Rees
Grlach : Living in a so-called post-factual era, what are facts to you as a scientist?
Rees : In the United Kingdom, the individuals who voted for Brexit voted that way for a variety of reasons. Some who voted for it wanted to give the government a bloody snout; others voted blatantly against their best interests. The employees in South Wales, for example, benefited hugely from the European Union. There is a wide variety of different motives but I dont believe people would say that they voted against technology.
Grlach : Still, there is this ongoing narrative about the fear of globalization and digitalization, and that would also imply the fear of technology.
Rees : Sure, but that is oversimplified. We can have advanced technology on a smaller scale. I dont think you can say that technology is always correlated with larger-scale globalization. It allows for robotic manufacturing, and it allows for more customization to individual demand. The internet has allowed a lot of small businesses to flow.
Grlach : But there seems to be an increasing disconnect in many societies regarding the consensus on which facts matter and how facts are perceived.
Rees : To understand this attitude you are expressing, we have to realize that there arent many facts that are clear and relevant in their own right. In most cases, I guess people have reason to doubt. Most economic predictions, for example, have pretty poor records, so you cant call them facts.
In the Brexit debate, there were a lot of valid debates on both sides, and you cant blamed the public for being skeptical. This is also true for the climate debate. It is true that some people deny what is clear. But the details on climate change are very uncertain. Even those who agree on all will differ in their attitudes toward the appropriate policy. That depends on other things, including ethics. In a lot of recent debates, people agreed about the social sciences. They disagree about the appropriate policies deriving from that facts. For instance: how much constraint are we willing to exercising, in order to facilitate the life of generations to come? Opinions differ hugely.
‘In the Brexit debate, there were a lot of valid debates on both sides, and you cant blame the public for being skeptical.’ Lord Martin Rees
Grlach : But how then do you judge the developments we now see in many Western societies?
Grlach : What political framework do you think of as an ideal environment for science?
Rees : In the Soviet Union, they had some of the best mathematicians and physicists, partly because the study of those subjects was promoted for military reasons. People in those areas also felt that they had more intellectual liberty, which is why a bigger fraction of the top intellectuals went into math and physics in Soviet Russia than likely anywhere else ever since. That shows you can have really outstanding scientists surviving in that kind of society.
Grlach : So the ethical implication is not paramount to havinggood science after all?
Rees : I suppose scientists have a special responsibility to be concerned about the implications of their work. Often an academic scientist cant predict the implications of his work. The inventors of the laser, for example, “d no idea” that this technology could be used for eye surgery and DVD discs but also for weaponry. Among the most impressive scientists I have known are the ones who returned to academic pursuits after the end of World War II with relief but remained committed to doing what they could to control the powers they had helped to unleash.
In all cases, the scientists supported the make of the bomb in the context of the time. But they were also concerned about proliferation and arms control. It would have been wrong in order to be allowed to not be concerned.
To make an analogy: if you have teenage son, you may not be able to control what he does, but you sure are a poor mother if you dont care about what he does. Likewise, if you are a scientist and you made your own notions, theyre your progeny, as it were. Though you cant necessarily control how they will be applied, because that is beyond your control, you nonetheless should care and you should do all you can to ensure that your ideas, which you have helped to create, are used for the benefit of mankind and not in a damaging manner. This is something that should be instilled in all students. There should be ethics courses as part of all science courses in university.
‘How much constraint are we willing to exercise, in order to facilitate the life of generations to go? Sentiments differ hugely.’ Lord Martin Rees
Grlach : What, then, is your motive as a scientist?
Rees : I feel I am very privileged to have consistently, over a career of virtually 40 years now, played part in debates on topics that I think are writing the history of science in this period. As we attain great, collective, scientific progress, we are able to confront new mysteries, which we couldnt even have addressed in the past. Many of the questions that were being addressed when I was young have now been solved. Pressing topics couldnt even have been posed back then.
Of course the science I do is very remote from any application, but its of great fascination and a very wide audience is interested in these questions. It certainly adds to my satisfaction that I can actually convey some of these exciting ideas to a wider public. I would get less gratification if I could only talking here my work to a few fellow experts, so I am glad that these ideas can become part of a broader culture.
Grlach : What is the best idea you ever had?
Rees : I dont have any sort of singular notion, but I believe I have played a role in some of the ideas that have gradually formed over the past 20 or 30 years about how our world has evolved from a simple beginning to the complex cosmos we see around us that we are a part of. For me, the social part of science were critical many notions emerge out of discussion and cooperation and, of course, out of experiments and observations.
The symbiosis between science and technology the old idea is that science eventually leads to an application is far too nave! It goes two ways, because advancements stimulated in academics are enhanced by technology. We only made advancements beyond Aristotle by having much more sensitive detectors and being able to explore space in many ways. If we didnt have computers or ways of discover radioactivity, etc ., we would have stimulated no progress because we are no wiser than Aristotle was.
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